|
B.
Residential
3.
Population Change
The Darby Watershed lies mostly outside of
Columbus,
Ohio, and within the fastest growing region in Ohio. Between 1990 and 2000 Central
Ohio grew by 15 percent as compared to 9 and 3 percent for regions around
Cincinnati
and
Cleveland. Over the next 30 years,
Central Ohio
is expected to grow by 36 percent to over 2.15 million people (MORPC, 2004).
Land consumption rates have increased considerably and are expected to
continue for the next 30 years as household size decreases and lot size and
population increase. For example
the City of
Columbus’ population grew by 68 percent between 1950 and 2000, yet its land area
increased by 390 percent. Currently,
there is 0.42 acres of land for every person but that number is expected to
increase to 0.69 acres by 2030 if current development trends continue.
Sprawling subdivisions and increased land consumption is expensive to
serve and maintain.
Many of these new residents will seek housing in suburban
communities outside of
Franklin
County
in Union,
Madison
, or Pickaway
Counties. Statistics show that vehicle
miles of travel increased by 31 percent between 1990 and 2000 whereas the
population only increased by 15 percent. In
the next 30 years the population is expected to increase by 36 percent, car
trips by 44 percent, miles driven by 47 percent, and the hours driven by 66
percent. In western
Licking
County
, just east of
Columbus
, the development pressures from the Columbus
metropolitan area are placing a strain on their roads and emergency services.
The city of
Pataskala
alone grew by 42 percent since 2000. The
western portions of
Licking
County
are expecting another 7,500 new homes in 2005.
Most of statistics above were from a report completed by The Mid Ohio
Regional Planning Commission and AIC Planning in August of 2004 for the seven
county region of Central Ohio which included
Madison, Union, and Pickaway
Counties
.
In addition to a more regional approach to population
growth and land use change, Dr. Steven Gordon with the City and Regional
Planning Department at the Ohio State University completed an analysis of
stream health in the Darby Watershed based on population change in 2001.
This report estimated the future population growth between 2000 and
2020 as seen in Figure 22.
|
Figure
22: Percent Future
Population Growth
|
|
Years
|
Percent
Growth
|
|
2000 - 2010
|
42.51%
|
|
2010 - 2020
|
48.67%
|
|
2000 - 2020
|
111.87%
|
Source: Gordon, Steve, et.
al., 2001. Development and Change in Big
Darby Watershed (pdf).
Department of City and Regional Planning, OSU. pg. 47.
The areas that were predicted to experience the greatest
population growth increases (80% and above) according to this study are the
Franklin
County
portions of the watershed and
Allen
Township
in
Union
County
.
At the time of this report, the current water quality
status of the western side of Big Darby in Union and
Madison
County
were both performing at the highest level of water quality, but through
projections of growth the quality of the stream is expected to decrease
dramatically similarly to what has occurred in the Hellbranch watershed (See
Figure 23). Gordon finds a strong
correlation between the increase in impervious surface (and population) and
lower water quality scores (See Figure
18).
Gordon suggests that smart growth techniques can reduce the effects,
but not eliminate them (Gordon et. al., 2001. Creating
a Screening Tool for Identification of the Ecological Risks of Human Activity
on Watershed Quality (pdf). City and Regional Planning, OSU. pg. 36-39)
Figure
23:
Unregulated Growth Scenario for Portions of Big
Darby
Creek
Watershed
Source:
Gordon et. al., 2001. Creating a
Screening Tool for Identification of the Ecological Risks of Human Activity on
Watershed Quality (pdf). City and Regional Planning, OSU. pg. 38
Since the Gordon studies of population change in the
Darby Watershed, additional data has been released from the U.S. Census Bureau
that has allowed for a more detailed analysis of population change in the
watershed.
Map
12 and Figure 24 illustrate population change between 1990 and 2000 based
on census blocks applied to the following municipalities.
The numbers below indicate population values for only the Darby
Watershed portions of the municipalities listed.
|
Figure
24:
Population
Change for Municipalities
|
|
|
|
% Change
|
|
|
% Change
|
|
Municipality
|
1990
|
2000
|
Municipality
|
1990
|
2000
|
|
Union
County
|
8,222
|
10,918
|
33.8
|
Logan
County
|
749
|
1,014
|
35.3
|
|
Allen
Twp
|
887
|
1,430
|
61.3
|
Monroe
Twp
|
14
|
13
|
-6.6
|
|
Darby
Twp
|
1,180
|
1,481
|
25.6
|
Perry
Twp
|
41
|
47
|
14.4
|
|
Jerome
Twp
|
1,355
|
1,800
|
32.9
|
Zane
Twp
|
694
|
953
|
37.4
|
|
Liberty
Twp
|
75
|
123
|
64.3
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mill
Creek Twp
|
38
|
55
|
44.4
|
|
|
|
|
|
Paris
Twp
|
468
|
272
|
-42
|
Madison
County
|
12,882
|
13,286
|
3.13
|
|
Union
Twp
|
1,007
|
939
|
-6.8
|
Canaan
Twp
|
2,304
|
2,486
|
7.9
|
|
City
of
Marysville
|
46
|
999
|
2,070
|
Darby
Twp
|
875
|
839
|
-4.2
|
|
Milford
Center
Village
|
651
|
626
|
-3.8
|
Deer
Creek Twp
|
135
|
81
|
-40
|
|
Unionville
Center
|
238
|
309
|
29.8
|
Fairfield
Twp
|
584
|
534
|
-8.6
|
|
Plain
City
|
976
|
895
|
-8.3
|
Jefferson
Twp
|
2,419
|
2,362
|
-2.4
|
|
|
|
|
|
Monroe
Twp
|
1,467
|
1,825
|
24.4
|
|
Franklin
County
|
17,846
|
30,396
|
70.3
|
Pike
Twp
|
506
|
531
|
4.9
|
|
Brown
Twp
|
1,808
|
1,949
|
7.8
|
Somerford
Twp
|
87
|
70
|
-19
|
|
Norwich
Twp
|
1,201
|
943
|
-21.5
|
W.
Jefferson
Village
|
4505
|
4558
|
1.2
|
|
Pleasant
Twp
|
5,813
|
6,048
|
4.0
|
Plain
City
Village
|
1302
|
1937
|
48.8
|
|
Prairie
Twp
|
3,145
|
2,747
|
-12.7
|
|
|
|
|
|
City
of
Hilliard
|
436
|
1,371
|
214.7
|
|
|
|
|
|
City
of
Columbus
|
2,437
|
12,955
|
431.6
|
Champaign
County
|
6,145
|
7,000
|
13.9
|
|
Lake
Darby
|
2,666
|
4,057
|
52.2
|
Goshen
Twp
|
1,332
|
1,567
|
17.6
|
|
Harrisburg
|
340
|
332
|
-2.3
|
Rush
Twp
|
792
|
860
|
8.6
|
|
|
|
|
|
Union
Twp
|
248
|
265
|
6.7
|
|
Pickaway
County
|
9,418
|
8,240
|
-12.5
|
Wayne
Twp
|
514
|
654
|
27.1
|
|
Darby
Twp
|
2,775
|
2,912
|
5.0
|
Village
of
Mechanicsburg
|
1,803
|
1,744
|
-3.3
|
|
Jackson
Twp
|
314
|
336
|
7.0
|
Village
of
N. Lewisburg
|
1,160
|
1,594
|
37.4
|
|
Muhlenburg
Twp
|
285
|
442
|
55.2
|
Woodstock
Village
|
296
|
317
|
7.1
|
|
Scioto
Twp
|
5,498
|
3,975
|
-27.7
|
|
|
|
|
|
Darbyville
Village
|
272
|
300
|
10.3
|
Total
Watershed
|
55,342
|
70,932
|
28.2
|
|
Orient
|
273
|
269
|
-1.5
|
|
|
|
|
Population growth and development in this region is
largely dependent on access to central water and sewer because the soils in
most of the watershed are not suitable for on-site wastewater treatment (See Map
13). In the late 1990s through
2002 the City of
Columbus
annexed sizeable portions of land within the Darby Watershed which spurred
sprawling developments. Through the work of citizen action groups and
concerned citizens, the City of
Columbus
placed a moratorium on extension of water and sewer areas along the western
fringe of
Columbus
in November of 2002 for two years. In
October of 2004, Columbus
extended the moratorium through the end of 2005 to give communities adequate
time to development a multi-jurisdictional comprehensive land use plan.
Additional details on this comprehensive plan can be found in section
D. Planning.
  
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